14.85
bn RMB
Investment & economics
We disclose optimistic/base/conservative cases and Monte Carlo bands to avoid single-number payback bias.
CAPEX breakdown (summary)
Chart is illustrative; tables in the FSR prevail.
Three LCOE definitions
Incremental (self-use)
0.083
RMB/kWh
Industry undiscounted
0.163
RMB/kWh
IFC 8%
0.342
RMB/kWh
0.083 RMB/kWh is the self-use incremental LCOE (O&M+finance ÷ self-consumption); 0.163 is industry undiscounted; 0.342 is IFC-style 8% discounted. See §14.4.3.
5×5 scenario matrix (excerpt)
One-way sensitivity (project IRR)
| Factor | -15% | -10% | -5% | Base | +5% | +10% | +15% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total CAPEX | 36.5% | 33.4% | 30.8% | 28.7% | 26.8% | 25.1% | 23.6% |
| Self-use tariff | 22.0% | 24.4% | 26.5% | 28.7% | 30.8% | 32.8% | 34.7% |
| Utilization hours | 22.5% | 24.8% | 26.7% | 28.7% | 30.6% | 32.4% | 34.1% |
| Self-consumption ratio | 24.5% | 26.0% | 27.4% | 28.7% | 29.9% | 31.0% | 32.0% |
| O&M rate | 30.5% | 29.9% | 29.3% | 28.7% | 28.1% | 27.5% | 26.9% |
| Loan interest rate | 29.8% | 29.4% | 29.0% | 28.7% | 28.4% | 28.0% | 27.6% |
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Monte Carlo (P10–P90)
Project IRR (%)
- P10
- 22.5
- P50
- 28.7
- P90
- 34.5
Full table in FSR §14.8.
NPV (bn RMB)
- P10
- 36.5
- P50
- 51.6
- P90
- 65.4
Full table in FSR §14.8.
PV payback (years)
- P10
- 2.2
- P50
- 1.5
- P90
- 0.85
Full table in FSR §14.8.
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